* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902016 11/18/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 19 19 20 25 30 37 42 48 52 57 61 V (KT) LAND 20 20 19 19 19 24 28 36 40 46 50 44 35 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 19 23 28 29 31 33 34 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 13 11 13 12 12 11 9 15 8 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 1 1 0 -3 -3 -1 6 -6 -1 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 223 189 191 176 160 154 147 138 151 175 160 139 118 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.4 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 154 153 148 140 135 133 130 131 134 136 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 150 149 148 144 135 130 129 123 125 129 131 135 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 72 73 74 75 75 76 73 69 62 58 56 59 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 12 12 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 48 46 47 46 46 54 45 59 52 73 63 59 54 200 MB DIV 12 27 34 42 39 63 93 78 59 63 38 64 88 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 2 1 2 2 LAND (KM) 155 115 70 27 -24 -24 12 56 83 75 39 -20 -39 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.0 10.7 10.3 9.9 9.1 8.3 7.8 7.5 7.6 8.0 8.6 9.2 LONG(DEG W) 82.2 82.5 82.8 83.0 83.3 83.5 83.4 83.0 82.8 82.9 83.2 83.4 83.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 5 4 3 3 0 1 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 45 47 45 19 26 14 11 3 3 3 4 13 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 10. 17. 22. 28. 32. 37. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.2 82.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902016 INVEST 11/18/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.45 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.26 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.90 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 17.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.92 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 15.5% 7.1% 1.8% 0.0% 2.1% 9.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 8.3% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 1.1% Consensus: 0.9% 7.9% 2.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.7% 3.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902016 INVEST 11/18/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902016 INVEST 11/18/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 19 19 19 24 28 36 40 46 50 44 35 18HR AGO 20 19 18 18 18 23 27 35 39 45 49 43 34 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 16 21 25 33 37 43 47 41 32 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT