* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902016 11/18/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 18 19 23 30 39 47 53 61 67 69 V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 18 19 22 25 26 26 26 31 37 39 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 19 19 22 25 26 26 26 30 33 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 8 11 12 11 12 10 7 5 7 4 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 1 1 1 -4 -5 -3 2 -5 0 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 229 222 178 182 174 152 148 112 124 158 209 176 220 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 154 152 149 142 139 139 142 145 151 158 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 151 149 148 145 137 135 135 138 140 148 157 158 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 -54.0 -53.7 -54.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 4 5 3 4 3 5 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 73 73 74 76 77 77 79 76 68 64 65 68 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 11 11 13 13 14 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 50 46 47 46 47 51 48 58 59 72 60 92 85 200 MB DIV -9 14 26 30 37 53 76 96 78 50 79 94 115 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 194 140 97 51 2 -63 -43 -38 -42 -38 10 150 268 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.1 10.7 10.3 9.9 9.2 8.6 8.4 8.5 8.7 9.3 10.7 12.2 LONG(DEG W) 81.9 82.3 82.5 82.7 82.9 82.9 82.5 81.9 81.1 80.6 80.2 80.3 81.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 5 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 40 47 48 42 18 17 17 18 23 25 36 43 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 35. 39. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 1. 0. 2. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. 3. 10. 19. 27. 33. 41. 47. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.4 81.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902016 INVEST 11/18/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 39.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.42 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.21 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.91 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 18.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.92 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 14.5% 6.6% 2.0% 0.0% 1.3% 7.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.9% Consensus: 0.9% 6.1% 2.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.5% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902016 INVEST 11/18/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902016 INVEST 11/18/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 19 18 18 19 22 25 26 26 26 31 37 39 18HR AGO 20 19 18 18 19 22 25 26 26 26 31 37 39 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 17 20 23 24 24 24 29 35 37 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT