* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902016 11/18/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 17 16 17 19 23 29 35 39 46 54 55 V (KT) LAND 20 19 17 16 17 18 23 28 34 37 44 40 33 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 19 18 17 22 24 28 29 30 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 20 15 10 13 13 15 13 10 10 13 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 5 1 0 -3 -3 -3 1 -4 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 206 220 225 218 187 179 158 163 139 160 167 162 182 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.1 28.4 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 156 156 151 140 135 135 134 135 139 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 154 153 150 151 147 136 131 130 128 128 134 138 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -54.2 -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 7 6 4 5 3 4 3 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 66 68 71 71 72 75 76 78 75 68 63 59 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 47 54 52 45 46 51 44 49 55 58 74 70 68 200 MB DIV -27 0 9 14 19 39 40 72 73 56 53 80 110 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 245 200 156 121 76 -15 -24 1 32 39 12 -27 -43 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.0 11.7 11.4 11.1 10.2 9.2 8.4 8.0 7.8 8.0 8.4 9.0 LONG(DEG W) 81.3 81.8 82.3 82.7 83.0 83.4 83.6 83.4 82.9 82.4 82.2 82.3 82.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 1 1 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 32 37 44 44 40 24 14 12 4 5 6 16 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 34. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -3. -1. 3. 9. 15. 19. 26. 34. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.3 81.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902016 INVEST 11/18/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 39.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.13 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.93 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 31.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 11.1% 5.3% 1.5% 0.0% 0.6% 3.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 3.9% 1.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 1.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902016 INVEST 11/18/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902016 INVEST 11/18/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 19 17 16 17 18 23 28 34 37 44 40 33 18HR AGO 20 19 17 16 17 18 23 28 34 37 44 40 33 12HR AGO 20 17 16 15 16 17 22 27 33 36 43 39 32 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT