* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902016 11/17/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 21 22 26 29 37 40 48 52 58 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 21 22 26 29 29 33 41 45 51 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 19 18 18 17 19 24 25 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 18 20 20 12 17 13 12 11 10 10 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 1 0 -3 -4 -2 -2 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 188 178 181 192 204 202 197 174 168 168 153 151 140 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 28.7 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 153 154 154 156 157 159 146 134 130 128 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 142 144 146 147 150 157 145 132 127 123 117 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 6 4 4 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 68 66 64 64 65 66 71 74 78 77 72 64 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 10 10 9 10 9 11 11 13 12 14 850 MB ENV VOR 40 45 49 55 63 60 72 62 65 42 55 48 68 200 MB DIV 28 11 0 -4 4 18 40 37 45 64 54 65 72 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 1 2 LAND (KM) 380 374 353 319 277 179 119 47 -64 58 109 169 191 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.5 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.5 12.9 11.8 10.3 8.7 7.6 7.0 6.8 LONG(DEG W) 79.8 79.8 80.0 80.3 80.7 81.7 82.4 83.3 84.0 84.3 84.2 84.1 84.1 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 2 3 5 4 6 8 8 7 4 2 0 HEAT CONTENT 32 32 32 32 31 29 29 26 19 5 3 3 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 35. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -1. -2. 0. -2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 9. 17. 20. 28. 32. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.3 79.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902016 INVEST 11/17/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.42 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.61 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.15 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.85 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 54.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 8.1% 3.7% 1.3% 0.0% 0.4% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 2.8% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902016 INVEST 11/17/16 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902016 INVEST 11/17/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 20 20 21 22 26 29 29 33 41 45 51 18HR AGO 20 19 19 19 20 21 25 28 28 32 40 44 50 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 17 18 22 25 25 29 37 41 47 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT