* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902016 11/17/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 23 25 27 30 33 37 41 44 45 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 23 25 27 26 26 32 35 39 40 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 19 18 19 24 27 25 23 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 17 19 22 18 17 17 18 23 20 26 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 0 -1 1 2 1 -2 -4 1 2 2 SHEAR DIR 200 196 194 192 197 212 194 198 170 173 162 166 166 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 28.2 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 153 154 154 155 155 158 140 132 130 127 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 145 143 143 145 148 148 157 142 134 132 128 126 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 6 7 5 5 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 69 67 63 61 60 63 64 70 73 75 73 69 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 11 12 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 34 41 50 45 49 61 74 63 61 51 33 29 50 200 MB DIV 34 26 17 12 1 7 18 55 46 46 46 25 28 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 3 1 2 2 LAND (KM) 380 369 344 323 269 140 38 -60 -45 174 408 608 759 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.3 13.9 12.7 10.9 8.9 7.1 5.6 4.5 LONG(DEG W) 79.8 79.8 80.0 80.2 80.7 81.9 83.0 84.1 85.4 86.8 87.9 88.9 89.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 3 4 5 6 6 10 12 11 10 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 32 33 35 36 36 28 26 42 18 1 4 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 35. 39. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -3. -7. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 17. 21. 24. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.3 79.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902016 INVEST 11/17/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.41 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.22 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.86 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 63.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 10.4% 4.9% 1.7% 0.0% 0.7% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 3.6% 1.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902016 INVEST 11/17/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902016 INVEST 11/17/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 22 23 25 27 26 26 32 35 39 40 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 22 24 26 25 25 31 34 38 39 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 20 22 21 21 27 30 34 35 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT