* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902016 11/16/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 23 26 28 32 35 41 48 56 60 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 23 26 28 32 28 35 42 50 54 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 18 17 21 24 25 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 18 17 16 21 12 16 10 12 10 11 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 1 1 -1 4 1 0 -2 1 0 6 SHEAR DIR 198 195 191 197 193 201 204 197 166 149 148 134 95 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 28.4 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 154 153 154 157 158 157 141 133 128 126 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 147 143 143 144 150 153 154 140 131 125 124 122 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 6 7 6 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 69 69 66 65 63 64 70 73 75 78 76 73 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 9 8 9 9 10 11 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 32 31 48 56 49 59 51 60 45 49 36 60 57 200 MB DIV 37 13 23 9 6 2 8 21 37 40 57 56 59 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 370 322 283 251 225 162 73 13 -43 110 172 248 283 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.5 13.8 13.8 13.6 13.1 12.4 11.5 10.1 8.7 7.5 6.5 6.0 LONG(DEG W) 80.0 80.3 80.6 80.9 81.2 82.0 82.9 83.7 84.4 84.9 85.0 84.8 84.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 3 3 4 6 6 7 8 7 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 32 32 32 31 30 30 30 18 15 4 3 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 722 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 25. 31. 35. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 12. 15. 21. 28. 36. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.0 80.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902016 INVEST 11/16/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.48 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.88 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 50.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 13.5% 7.3% 2.3% 0.0% 1.9% 2.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 4.7% 2.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.6% 0.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902016 INVEST 11/16/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902016 INVEST 11/16/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 22 23 26 28 32 28 35 42 50 54 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 22 25 27 31 27 34 41 49 53 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 21 23 27 23 30 37 45 49 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT