* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902016 11/16/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 19 20 21 23 27 32 35 41 50 58 65 V (KT) LAND 20 20 19 20 21 23 27 32 35 34 30 28 35 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 18 17 23 25 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 15 15 13 15 12 11 9 10 10 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 1 1 4 1 3 0 0 -5 -6 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 165 172 186 192 192 188 203 183 191 150 153 113 115 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 28.9 28.5 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 155 154 155 157 155 155 154 147 140 136 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 149 145 145 145 149 148 147 149 143 135 130 129 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -54.1 -53.8 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 5 7 5 6 4 5 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 70 71 73 71 70 70 75 74 78 79 81 80 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 11 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 24 29 35 40 45 48 56 50 52 56 54 57 64 200 MB DIV 73 42 14 9 2 -13 -6 19 32 38 49 64 93 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 294 326 293 273 266 248 194 140 76 -16 -75 -10 15 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.5 12.6 12.5 12.3 11.8 11.4 11.1 10.5 9.7 9.0 8.4 8.1 LONG(DEG W) 80.0 80.5 80.8 81.0 81.1 81.4 81.9 82.3 82.6 82.9 82.9 82.9 82.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 2 2 2 3 3 2 4 4 3 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 31 30 30 30 30 33 39 43 37 4 14 12 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 750 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 31. 36. 39. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 15. 21. 30. 38. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.2 80.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902016 INVEST 11/16/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 30.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 37.5 to 2.9 0.46 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.25 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.89 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 36.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 13.3% 6.2% 1.3% 0.0% 1.4% 6.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 5.0% 2.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.5% 2.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902016 INVEST 11/16/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902016 INVEST 11/16/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 19 20 21 23 27 32 35 34 30 28 35 18HR AGO 20 19 18 19 20 22 26 31 34 33 29 27 34 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 20 24 29 32 31 27 25 32 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT