* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902016 11/15/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 25 28 31 37 42 47 49 52 56 62 70 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 28 31 37 42 47 49 52 56 62 43 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 24 27 29 30 30 29 28 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 11 10 9 16 16 22 18 19 10 10 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 0 2 -2 -1 -3 -2 -3 -5 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 111 128 154 177 192 180 194 194 192 187 159 156 100 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.2 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 156 154 153 152 153 154 155 156 159 154 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 151 150 146 144 140 142 144 146 149 155 154 140 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 8 6 7 6 7 6 6 4 4 700-500 MB RH 73 73 73 72 70 70 69 69 71 72 75 79 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 33 32 28 26 34 52 58 65 69 64 60 63 67 200 MB DIV 116 102 77 53 40 32 39 31 18 41 51 78 82 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 286 306 339 379 411 402 360 298 223 184 140 42 -73 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.3 13.7 13.7 13.6 13.4 12.9 11.9 10.4 9.0 LONG(DEG W) 78.0 78.5 78.9 79.2 79.3 79.5 79.9 80.5 81.3 81.8 82.4 82.9 83.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 4 3 2 2 3 3 5 7 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 46 41 35 32 31 32 31 32 32 34 41 26 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 16.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 36. 40. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 17. 22. 27. 29. 32. 36. 42. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.9 78.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902016 INVEST 11/15/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.90 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 16.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.84 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 32.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 27.0% 62.4% 38.3% 28.3% 0.0% 26.4% 21.5% Bayesian: 3.6% 25.1% 8.4% 1.2% 0.6% 1.6% 0.0% Consensus: 10.2% 29.2% 15.6% 9.8% 0.2% 9.3% 7.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902016 INVEST 11/15/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902016 INVEST 11/15/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 25 28 31 37 42 47 49 52 56 62 43 18HR AGO 20 19 21 24 27 33 38 43 45 48 52 58 39 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 22 28 33 38 40 43 47 53 34 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT