* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902016 08/22/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 47 53 68 77 80 81 78 75 80 86 V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 47 53 68 77 80 81 78 75 80 86 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 37 42 47 58 68 74 74 69 63 62 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 14 13 13 3 2 16 30 36 23 11 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -2 -1 -3 2 9 5 4 3 0 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 84 91 91 84 77 63 316 260 244 240 230 217 261 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 27.8 27.1 26.8 26.7 27.3 27.7 28.0 28.5 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 140 140 136 127 124 123 130 134 138 145 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 143 143 142 137 125 122 120 126 126 127 133 142 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -53.4 -53.4 -52.8 -53.3 -52.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -54.1 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 10 700-500 MB RH 71 71 72 72 72 71 71 70 71 70 67 63 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 21 23 24 27 28 28 29 29 29 31 33 850 MB ENV VOR 113 123 122 131 134 109 78 45 53 38 52 46 49 200 MB DIV 75 90 84 62 69 72 89 121 90 58 31 4 39 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -3 -2 -3 -3 0 17 29 40 20 1 0 LAND (KM) 1197 1365 1535 1681 1829 1948 1811 1802 1898 1953 1775 1609 1478 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 28.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 15 15 15 14 15 17 17 14 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 8 13 17 14 13 12 11 16 6 7 22 30 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 462 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 27.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 19. 23. 25. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 4. -1. -4. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 10. 9. 10. 10. 9. 11. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 23. 38. 47. 50. 51. 48. 45. 50. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.0 28.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902016 INVEST 08/22/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.65 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.91 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.38 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.48 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.75 1.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 104.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.83 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.6 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 30.1% 13.8% 10.9% 8.3% 10.3% 20.3% Logistic: 28.1% 62.2% 41.6% 30.8% 0.0% 27.0% 10.0% Bayesian: 9.2% 20.4% 8.8% 1.0% 0.9% 9.7% 16.8% Consensus: 14.9% 37.5% 21.4% 14.2% 3.0% 15.7% 15.7% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902016 INVEST 08/22/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 35 41 47 53 68 77 80 81 78 75 80 86 18HR AGO 30 29 35 41 47 62 71 74 75 72 69 74 80 12HR AGO 30 27 26 32 38 53 62 65 66 63 60 65 71 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 26 41 50 53 54 51 48 53 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT