* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902016 08/22/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 44 49 62 73 80 83 80 77 79 83 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 44 49 62 73 80 83 80 77 79 83 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 40 45 55 64 71 74 71 65 60 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 14 14 14 9 7 11 24 38 32 18 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -5 -5 -2 -1 -4 3 1 2 2 0 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 62 75 87 90 88 50 348 292 258 241 251 230 252 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.3 27.7 27.0 26.6 27.0 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 139 141 143 135 126 122 126 132 135 139 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 147 145 145 145 136 126 119 121 125 125 126 131 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 6 7 8 7 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 74 74 74 74 74 75 74 72 72 72 69 63 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 20 21 24 26 27 27 27 27 28 30 850 MB ENV VOR 109 111 120 125 127 126 94 62 54 41 45 57 38 200 MB DIV 46 72 86 86 64 55 71 85 98 91 41 -1 20 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -4 -4 -1 -3 -1 7 19 40 29 5 -2 LAND (KM) 1024 1205 1392 1547 1705 1975 1843 1831 1873 1956 1900 1761 1671 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 17 15 14 15 16 16 15 15 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 19 20 17 15 17 12 10 4 20 27 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 11.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 0. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 9. 10. 11. 9. 9. 10. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 19. 32. 43. 50. 53. 50. 47. 49. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.4 26.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902016 INVEST 08/22/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.46 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.79 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 87.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902016 INVEST 08/22/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 44 49 62 73 80 83 80 77 79 83 18HR AGO 30 29 33 39 44 57 68 75 78 75 72 74 78 12HR AGO 30 27 26 32 37 50 61 68 71 68 65 67 71 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 38 49 56 59 56 53 55 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT