* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902016 08/22/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 44 57 71 81 87 87 84 86 88 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 44 57 71 81 87 87 84 86 88 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 31 34 38 48 58 67 74 75 71 67 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 14 14 14 14 8 6 18 25 34 22 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -6 -4 -2 -2 -4 1 1 4 -1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 37 47 62 80 86 72 15 327 269 247 248 224 205 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.8 28.0 27.5 26.9 26.8 26.9 27.3 27.6 28.0 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 135 137 139 132 125 124 125 130 133 138 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 143 141 142 144 134 125 122 121 124 125 127 132 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -52.7 -53.4 -53.3 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 76 76 75 75 76 76 75 71 71 72 71 65 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 17 17 20 23 26 27 28 29 28 29 30 850 MB ENV VOR 113 117 121 123 126 131 115 82 42 53 53 61 49 200 MB DIV 21 47 83 98 86 62 51 59 88 107 60 22 5 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -4 -3 -2 -4 0 14 29 35 17 4 LAND (KM) 852 1042 1215 1380 1550 1862 1865 1797 1830 1903 1955 1804 1664 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 17 17 17 16 16 16 15 15 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 11 8 11 20 21 15 14 11 16 6 8 25 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 426 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 11.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -2. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 12. 14. 14. 12. 13. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 19. 32. 46. 56. 62. 62. 59. 61. 63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.8 24.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902016 INVEST 08/22/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.44 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.80 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 62.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902016 INVEST 08/22/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 33 38 44 57 71 81 87 87 84 86 88 18HR AGO 25 24 28 33 39 52 66 76 82 82 79 81 83 12HR AGO 25 22 21 26 32 45 59 69 75 75 72 74 76 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 21 34 48 58 64 64 61 63 65 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT