* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902016 08/22/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 38 44 58 71 80 85 86 84 85 87 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 38 44 58 71 80 85 86 84 85 87 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 31 35 39 49 59 66 72 74 71 67 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 6 9 12 12 12 6 6 12 23 33 22 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 -3 -3 0 -1 0 0 1 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 81 50 59 80 101 110 55 292 273 262 240 229 217 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.2 26.8 26.7 26.8 27.2 27.5 28.0 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 138 137 135 129 124 123 124 129 132 137 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 145 144 141 138 131 123 120 121 124 124 123 123 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 7 7 6 6 7 8 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 70 71 70 70 70 70 73 71 71 72 71 67 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 16 16 17 22 24 25 26 26 26 27 30 850 MB ENV VOR 99 105 109 111 116 125 124 88 43 46 39 46 45 200 MB DIV 10 25 50 70 92 92 75 52 66 100 69 30 1 700-850 TADV 2 1 1 0 -1 1 0 0 13 27 41 34 9 LAND (KM) 643 834 1021 1195 1373 1709 1985 1872 1881 1934 2015 1885 1791 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 22.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 19 18 17 16 17 15 15 16 16 15 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 8 9 14 13 11 11 13 6 6 24 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 12.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 2. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 13. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 19. 33. 46. 55. 60. 61. 59. 60. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.7 22.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902016 INVEST 08/22/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.35 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.80 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 99.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902016 INVEST 08/22/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 33 38 44 58 71 80 85 86 84 85 87 18HR AGO 25 24 29 34 40 54 67 76 81 82 80 81 83 12HR AGO 25 22 21 26 32 46 59 68 73 74 72 73 75 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 21 35 48 57 62 63 61 62 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT