* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902016 08/21/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 29 33 44 58 68 76 78 82 81 82 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 29 33 44 58 68 76 78 82 81 82 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 24 26 32 39 46 53 60 65 63 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 9 9 10 15 11 3 9 19 21 31 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 3 -2 -1 0 3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 82 60 59 67 74 108 82 50 303 273 261 261 248 SST (C) 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.2 26.7 26.7 26.9 27.4 27.7 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 132 135 137 138 138 135 128 123 123 126 131 134 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 141 142 144 143 139 129 121 120 122 125 124 126 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 -53.6 -53.0 -53.5 -53.2 -53.7 -53.6 -54.2 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 7 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 72 71 72 71 72 74 75 75 72 69 70 68 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 16 16 18 22 22 23 23 26 25 26 850 MB ENV VOR 96 95 99 105 112 116 123 87 37 8 29 28 28 200 MB DIV -1 8 24 50 82 102 75 55 21 64 108 32 3 700-850 TADV 3 1 2 1 0 1 1 0 3 15 28 22 3 LAND (KM) 416 611 802 975 1156 1509 1838 1958 1948 1955 1969 1973 1894 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 20.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 18 18 18 17 17 15 15 16 17 16 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 11 9 9 19 13 11 7 8 4 14 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 6. 3. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 9. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 8. 9. 9. 11. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 9. 13. 24. 38. 48. 56. 58. 62. 61. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.7 20.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902016 INVEST 08/21/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.27 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.83 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 65.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902016 INVEST 08/21/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 24 29 33 44 58 68 76 78 82 81 82 18HR AGO 20 19 22 27 31 42 56 66 74 76 80 79 80 12HR AGO 20 17 16 21 25 36 50 60 68 70 74 73 74 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT