* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902016 08/21/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 27 31 41 53 64 73 79 81 82 84 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 27 31 41 53 64 73 79 81 82 84 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 23 25 30 36 42 47 52 58 61 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 7 7 5 11 10 8 4 9 20 33 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 2 2 -2 0 -1 1 0 5 0 0 SHEAR DIR 100 91 67 72 106 169 175 146 317 294 263 242 239 SST (C) 27.2 27.4 27.7 27.8 27.7 26.6 26.5 26.7 26.8 26.8 27.1 27.6 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 127 130 135 137 137 125 123 123 121 123 129 135 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 130 138 143 145 132 126 120 112 118 128 129 132 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 7 7 7 6 7 8 8 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 74 74 70 71 68 60 56 58 59 64 68 67 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 14 16 17 20 21 24 24 25 26 28 850 MB ENV VOR 85 83 79 74 68 105 125 141 104 46 24 25 33 200 MB DIV -8 -7 -1 26 54 76 82 46 37 49 84 74 14 700-850 TADV 7 5 1 3 7 7 3 4 2 10 36 42 13 LAND (KM) 264 393 543 688 863 1363 1922 1888 1743 1826 2076 2172 1916 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.8 12.1 12.7 13.5 15.2 16.1 16.3 16.4 18.0 21.5 25.2 26.7 LONG(DEG W) 19.2 20.4 21.8 23.5 25.4 30.2 35.4 39.3 41.5 42.3 43.5 46.0 49.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 16 19 22 26 22 15 7 14 22 20 16 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 7 9 13 12 3 5 15 13 6 19 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 7. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 7. 8. 11. 11. 11. 12. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 11. 21. 33. 44. 53. 59. 61. 62. 64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.8 19.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902016 INVEST 08/21/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.18 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.79 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 65.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902016 INVEST 08/21/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 27 31 41 53 64 73 79 81 82 84 18HR AGO 20 19 21 25 29 39 51 62 71 77 79 80 82 12HR AGO 20 17 16 20 24 34 46 57 66 72 74 75 77 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT