* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902016 08/21/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 28 37 47 59 71 77 81 87 83 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 25 28 37 47 59 71 77 81 87 83 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 26 31 36 43 50 59 66 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 11 8 7 10 9 9 8 2 14 23 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 -1 -1 0 -5 -1 -1 -3 -1 -4 1 2 SHEAR DIR 114 113 117 104 135 164 149 110 115 61 287 265 259 SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.0 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.8 27.0 27.5 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 128 130 134 136 135 128 125 124 122 122 126 133 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 131 136 141 142 134 128 122 117 117 122 130 131 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -53.4 -53.2 -53.8 -53.4 -53.8 -53.5 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 74 72 70 68 68 61 61 61 63 65 66 72 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 12 13 14 16 18 21 20 21 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 93 87 80 78 71 96 127 143 122 74 24 45 30 200 MB DIV 0 -7 -7 -4 16 44 85 57 37 33 43 86 52 700-850 TADV 6 7 4 1 4 3 -1 -3 1 4 7 23 20 LAND (KM) 140 281 434 581 776 1236 1740 1926 1748 1706 1772 1931 1854 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.4 12.7 13.1 13.6 14.5 14.8 14.9 15.2 16.2 18.2 21.1 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 18.1 19.4 20.9 22.6 24.6 29.0 33.7 37.5 40.0 41.8 43.4 45.7 48.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 16 19 21 22 21 15 10 11 15 19 17 HEAT CONTENT 5 13 9 7 10 10 5 13 14 19 12 5 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 5. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 9. 7. 7. 11. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 17. 27. 39. 51. 57. 61. 67. 63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.3 18.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902016 INVEST 08/21/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.11 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.78 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 74.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902016 INVEST 08/21/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 25 28 37 47 59 71 77 81 87 83 18HR AGO 20 19 20 23 26 35 45 57 69 75 79 85 81 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 22 31 41 53 65 71 75 81 77 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT