* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902016 08/21/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 27 36 45 56 64 71 77 83 82 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 25 27 36 45 56 64 71 77 83 82 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 25 29 34 39 44 51 58 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 8 10 7 7 13 12 13 2 11 21 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 2 0 0 -1 -5 -1 -5 1 0 1 5 SHEAR DIR 137 141 107 113 122 167 163 136 111 143 269 266 260 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.3 26.8 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.5 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 131 133 134 132 126 123 122 123 126 134 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 129 132 136 139 138 130 123 118 120 124 132 133 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 7 6 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 72 73 71 69 66 61 59 61 66 64 65 64 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 14 15 17 18 19 20 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 87 94 86 79 70 80 117 127 143 99 54 28 29 200 MB DIV 3 -2 5 1 0 22 56 79 53 35 42 48 51 700-850 TADV 4 6 4 2 0 4 0 -2 0 6 18 20 30 LAND (KM) 10 140 291 422 604 1065 1547 1988 1827 1764 1824 1956 1826 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.7 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.4 14.6 14.6 14.9 16.1 18.5 21.5 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 16.9 18.1 19.5 21.1 23.0 27.4 31.9 36.0 38.7 40.8 43.0 46.0 49.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 15 17 20 22 22 16 11 14 19 21 18 HEAT CONTENT 9 5 13 10 10 5 8 11 18 10 9 5 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 16. 25. 36. 44. 51. 57. 63. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.6 16.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902016 INVEST 08/21/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.12 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.76 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 72.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902016 INVEST 08/21/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 25 27 36 45 56 64 71 77 83 82 18HR AGO 20 19 20 23 25 34 43 54 62 69 75 81 80 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 21 30 39 50 58 65 71 77 76 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT