* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902016 01/13/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 46 47 53 65 71 76 72 72 67 60 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 46 47 53 65 71 76 72 72 67 60 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 45 45 46 50 56 59 57 52 53 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 18 26 22 10 18 20 21 19 17 29 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 -4 0 5 5 15 21 21 13 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 325 317 325 340 314 276 181 165 154 224 222 N/A N/A SST (C) 22.3 21.8 21.3 20.5 20.0 17.2 14.8 11.2 5.1 3.5 0.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 89 87 86 83 82 77 75 72 68 68 70 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 81 79 79 78 77 73 72 71 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -54.2 -55.9 -58.0 -59.6 -61.7 -62.5 -61.1 -61.5 -62.9 -62.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 57 55 55 58 65 72 65 75 73 66 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 25 25 24 27 34 35 37 30 26 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 185 166 146 125 99 93 193 267 302 222 105 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 21 16 39 34 61 142 132 58 23 51 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 29 3 0 53 139 96 86 117 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1558 1526 1498 1498 1499 1674 1648 1534 1383 909 194 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 15 18 19 24 31 34 28 29 36 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 12 CX,CY: 10/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -9. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 9. 16. 24. 30. 37. 44. 50. 50. 51. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -21. -25. -27. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 6. 8. 0. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 18. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 20. 26. 31. 27. 27. 22. 15. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902016 INVEST 01/13/16 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902016 INVEST 01/13/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED