* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902016 01/13/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 49 48 47 45 46 52 59 61 61 50 45 V (KT) LAND 50 50 49 48 47 45 46 52 59 61 61 50 45 V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 49 48 47 45 48 52 57 58 56 50 48 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 34 31 25 17 14 19 26 19 29 44 38 39 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -7 -3 1 5 1 0 6 11 17 17 28 11 SHEAR DIR 321 315 305 308 299 337 288 234 210 189 175 149 120 SST (C) 23.1 22.7 22.3 21.9 21.4 20.6 19.8 17.2 14.6 12.3 9.5 7.1 6.6 POT. INT. (KT) 94 91 89 87 84 82 81 76 74 71 68 65 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 86 83 81 79 77 75 75 73 71 69 67 64 62 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.9 -52.2 -53.4 -54.8 -57.5 -59.2 -62.2 -63.3 -62.7 -62.0 -62.9 -65.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 62 63 62 59 57 58 70 76 74 79 79 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 27 26 25 24 23 26 30 33 36 28 20 850 MB ENV VOR 260 243 222 214 190 162 128 118 133 144 111 169 149 200 MB DIV 22 13 -5 33 28 45 22 85 91 18 72 33 7 700-850 TADV 4 0 10 -1 -4 -3 20 30 40 -22 -52 -49 -47 LAND (KM) 1851 1744 1644 1605 1577 1530 1479 1489 1261 1063 843 970 1158 LAT (DEG N) 25.5 26.1 26.7 27.7 28.6 30.3 32.6 36.3 41.5 47.2 52.5 56.2 58.2 LONG(DEG W) 34.7 33.5 32.3 31.5 30.8 29.5 27.7 25.8 24.3 23.0 22.7 24.7 27.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 12 11 12 17 23 28 28 23 15 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 15 CX,CY: 14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 19. 26. 33. 38. 41. 46. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -19. -22. -26. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -3. 1. 4. 6. -2. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. 2. 9. 11. 11. 0. -5. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902016 INVEST 01/13/16 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902016 INVEST 01/13/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED