* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902016 01/12/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 48 46 45 41 40 41 49 55 53 52 40 V (KT) LAND 50 49 48 46 45 41 40 41 49 55 53 52 40 V (KT) LGE mod 50 49 48 47 46 44 44 47 51 56 57 52 47 Storm Type EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 37 32 28 23 14 27 19 20 28 33 50 33 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -5 -1 2 -4 7 6 6 20 16 28 33 SHEAR DIR 326 317 316 301 305 327 294 292 212 195 189 164 140 SST (C) 23.3 23.0 22.6 22.1 21.6 21.0 20.5 19.4 16.5 14.0 11.4 9.1 7.4 POT. INT. (KT) 96 93 91 88 85 81 81 80 75 73 71 67 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 90 86 83 80 77 74 74 75 72 71 69 66 64 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -52.2 -52.7 -53.3 -54.6 -56.6 -58.1 -60.5 -62.4 -63.0 -62.2 -61.8 -63.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 61 66 65 64 55 56 62 76 79 75 83 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 27 26 26 25 22 22 22 27 32 34 37 24 850 MB ENV VOR 266 249 231 224 210 183 145 114 112 164 156 155 164 200 MB DIV 0 37 26 3 31 15 25 37 86 42 49 57 23 700-850 TADV 12 1 -3 9 0 17 22 -8 41 30 -17 -74 -34 LAND (KM) 1944 1802 1666 1634 1613 1590 1553 1501 1462 1214 935 810 936 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.6 26.1 27.2 28.2 29.5 30.8 33.2 37.3 42.7 48.6 53.5 56.6 LONG(DEG W) 35.7 34.2 32.7 32.0 31.4 30.6 29.5 27.6 25.8 24.0 22.3 22.3 24.0 STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 13 12 10 8 11 18 25 29 27 20 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 20 CX,CY: 20/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 23. 30. 35. 38. 41. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -7. -7. -3. 2. 3. 6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -10. -9. -1. 5. 3. 2. -10. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902016 INVEST 01/12/16 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902016 INVEST 01/12/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902016 INVEST 01/12/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)