* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902016 01/12/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 41 38 35 29 23 19 20 25 31 30 37 V (KT) LAND 45 43 41 38 35 29 23 19 20 25 31 30 37 V (KT) LGE mod 45 43 41 39 37 33 31 29 29 32 36 41 48 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 50 44 42 38 33 27 31 42 30 30 22 34 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -5 -5 -1 4 9 -6 7 0 11 11 5 SHEAR DIR 337 332 329 330 328 328 335 312 303 270 213 207 221 SST (C) 23.4 23.6 23.6 23.4 23.2 22.7 22.2 21.8 20.9 19.9 17.7 15.9 14.5 POT. INT. (KT) 97 97 96 95 93 89 87 85 83 81 76 74 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 91 90 89 87 85 81 78 77 76 76 72 70 69 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.1 -50.9 -51.3 -51.3 -52.6 -54.3 -55.9 -58.4 -60.5 -60.8 -60.0 -60.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 6 6 6 4 4 3 2 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 47 50 50 53 52 55 59 52 51 63 68 61 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 26 25 25 23 22 21 23 27 31 32 39 850 MB ENV VOR 290 267 246 214 185 153 128 101 74 29 11 4 -3 200 MB DIV -29 -13 3 2 -12 -3 -24 12 27 65 22 48 17 700-850 TADV 17 5 4 3 1 12 30 15 6 -8 -11 -64 -102 LAND (KM) 2164 2007 1852 1719 1587 1433 1392 1415 1451 1465 1463 1123 720 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 24.2 23.5 23.6 23.6 24.9 26.3 27.6 29.5 32.3 35.8 39.0 41.7 LONG(DEG W) 37.9 36.4 34.9 33.6 32.3 30.6 29.8 29.5 29.0 27.7 25.4 22.2 17.7 STM SPEED (KT) 18 15 13 12 11 8 7 8 12 18 20 21 21 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):140/ 22 CX,CY: 14/-16 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -12. -17. -21. -24. -24. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 21. 23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -3. 1. 4. 4. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -10. -16. -22. -26. -25. -20. -14. -15. -8. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902016 INVEST 01/12/16 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902016 INVEST 01/12/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902016 INVEST 01/12/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)