* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IOTA AL312020 11/17/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 44 40 39 39 47 51 54 60 68 72 79 81 81 77 74 77 V (KT) LAND 55 43 36 32 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 42 35 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 14 11 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 89 83 105 134 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.1 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 147 138 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 145 148 144 135 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -53.2 -53.7 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 79 78 76 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 17 15 12 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 174 197 181 140 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 116 128 85 59 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -214 -134 -67 -63 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.7 86.8 87.8 88.8 89.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 10 12 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -12. -17. -18. -16. -10. -8. -8. -7. -3. -1. 2. 1. -2. -7. -12. -10. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -14. -17. -19. -20. -21. -22. -22. -22. -21. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -11. -15. -16. -16. -8. -4. -1. 5. 13. 17. 24. 26. 26. 22. 19. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.7 85.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL312020 IOTA 11/17/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -60.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.51 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.55 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 0.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 1.1% 999.0% Bayesian: 11.1% 33.5% 4.9% 0.8% 1.4% 8.1% 22.8% 999.0% Consensus: 3.7% 11.5% 1.7% 0.3% 0.6% 5.5% 8.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL312020 IOTA 11/17/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL312020 IOTA 11/17/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 43 36 32 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 55 54 47 43 42 40 39 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 12HR AGO 55 52 51 47 46 44 43 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 42 41 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT