* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IOTA AL312020 11/17/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 65 63 62 62 62 61 60 64 69 74 80 81 81 78 78 80 V (KT) LAND 75 54 42 36 32 33 31 31 35 40 45 50 52 52 49 48 50 V (KT) LGEM 75 53 41 35 31 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 13 11 10 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 0 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 79 80 99 105 121 186 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.0 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 149 150 145 136 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 151 146 148 142 132 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -53.2 -53.6 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 4 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 78 79 78 76 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 21 17 15 11 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 135 177 193 170 137 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 102 109 103 81 52 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 3 1 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -141 -206 -131 -72 -56 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.8 85.8 86.9 88.0 89.0 90.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 6 12 10 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -11. -14. -14. -12. -7. -6. -7. -5. -2. 2. 4. 3. 0. -4. -7. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -6. -10. -15. -20. -23. -26. -27. -29. -30. -30. -29. -28. -27. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -15. -11. -6. -1. 5. 6. 6. 3. 3. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 13.7 84.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL312020 IOTA 11/17/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -55.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.37 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.55 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 1.1% 0.8% Bayesian: 23.2% 49.5% 13.0% 5.4% 6.6% 19.2% 16.9% 38.9% Consensus: 7.8% 16.9% 4.5% 1.9% 2.4% 9.1% 6.0% 13.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL312020 IOTA 11/17/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL312020 IOTA 11/17/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 54 42 36 32 33 31 31 35 40 45 50 52 52 49 48 50 18HR AGO 75 74 62 56 52 53 51 51 55 60 65 70 72 72 69 68 70 12HR AGO 75 72 71 65 61 62 60 60 64 69 74 79 81 81 78 77 79 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 61 62 60 60 64 69 74 79 81 81 78 77 79 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT