* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IOTA AL312020 11/17/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 109 106 104 101 92 84 78 78 76 78 81 81 83 83 84 85 V (KT) LAND 115 78 56 43 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 115 78 55 42 35 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 13 14 14 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 0 0 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 86 80 79 108 123 174 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.2 28.9 29.1 28.7 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 150 153 147 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 148 151 147 151 143 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -52.5 -53.3 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 76 77 78 77 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 24 19 16 14 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 121 148 184 203 182 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 113 129 131 137 107 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -43 -146 -214 -139 -89 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.8 13.8 13.9 13.9 13.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.9 84.8 85.8 86.8 87.9 89.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 7 6 9 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -3. -10. -18. -25. -31. -35. -38. -41. -43. -46. -48. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -9. -10. -8. -4. -0. 3. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -5. -6. -4. -3. -1. -2. -3. -1. -0. 3. 4. 3. 1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -8. -8. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -5. -8. -11. -18. -24. -28. -30. -32. -34. -35. -35. -33. -32. -31. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -9. -11. -14. -23. -31. -37. -37. -39. -37. -34. -34. -32. -32. -31. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 13.7 83.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL312020 IOTA 11/17/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.30 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.94 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 233.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.05 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 123.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.71 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 11.3% 9.3% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 4.5% 1.4% 1.1% 2.4% 1.3% 1.4% 0.5% Bayesian: 11.9% 2.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.6% 6.0% 3.7% 2.8% 0.9% 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 43.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL312020 IOTA 11/17/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL312020 IOTA 11/17/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 78 56 43 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 115 114 92 79 72 66 64 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 12HR AGO 115 112 111 98 91 85 83 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 98 92 90 89 89 89 89 89 89 89 89 89 89 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 90 88 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT