* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IOTA AL312020 11/17/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 140 137 133 127 121 110 100 93 89 85 82 83 84 86 86 87 87 V (KT) LAND 140 107 74 53 42 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 140 110 75 53 41 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 13 13 14 13 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -1 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 77 88 70 76 106 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 29.1 29.3 28.9 29.0 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 152 156 150 152 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 141 147 153 147 149 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.7 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 76 76 76 78 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 28 23 19 17 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 109 124 153 190 214 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 145 118 133 149 157 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -1 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 43 -43 -130 -222 -146 -66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.7 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.1 83.9 84.7 85.7 86.7 89.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 30 8 8 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -10. -21. -34. -44. -54. -61. -65. -69. -72. -75. -77. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -9. -12. -12. -10. -5. -0. 4. 9. 12. 16. 20. 23. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -8. -9. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -7. -10. -17. -22. -26. -28. -30. -32. -33. -32. -31. -31. -29. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -13. -19. -30. -40. -47. -51. -55. -57. -57. -56. -54. -54. -53. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 13.6 83.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL312020 IOTA 11/17/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 140.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 282.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 7.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 140.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.79 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 3.8% 1.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 1.6% 0.3% Bayesian: 1.2% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 2.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 99.0% 19.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 56.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL312020 IOTA 11/17/20 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL312020 IOTA 11/17/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 54 0( 54) 0( 54) 0( 54) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 63 0( 63) 0( 63) 0( 63) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 140 107 74 53 42 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 140 139 106 85 74 64 61 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 12HR AGO 140 137 136 115 104 94 91 89 89 89 89 89 89 89 89 89 89 6HR AGO 140 134 131 130 119 109 106 104 104 104 104 104 104 104 104 104 104 NOW 140 131 125 122 121 111 108 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 IN 6HR 140 107 98 92 89 85 82 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT