* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IOTA AL312020 11/16/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 140 141 137 128 123 112 97 90 84 80 74 73 75 77 78 78 77 V (KT) LAND 140 141 107 74 53 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 140 139 109 74 53 35 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 13 16 11 13 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 -3 0 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 67 84 79 66 93 145 166 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.7 29.1 29.2 28.9 29.0 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 152 154 149 151 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 139 141 147 149 144 148 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 74 74 74 76 81 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 30 28 22 20 15 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 98 115 134 159 185 184 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 144 155 121 128 142 97 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 -1 1 8 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 124 43 -43 -129 -204 -110 -43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.7 13.8 13.9 14.0 13.9 13.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.3 83.1 83.9 84.7 85.5 87.3 89.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 27 30 8 4 9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -2. -3. -5. -11. -22. -35. -46. -56. -63. -67. -71. -75. -78. -79. -79. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -9. -11. -13. -10. -5. -1. 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 23. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. 1. 1. -0. -0. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -8. -8. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -5. -8. -14. -24. -28. -31. -33. -34. -35. -35. -34. -33. -31. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. -0. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -3. -12. -17. -28. -43. -50. -56. -60. -66. -67. -65. -63. -62. -62. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 13.5 82.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL312020 IOTA 11/16/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 140.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 289.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 4.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 138.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.78 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.2% 11.1% 4.0% 1.8% 1.3% 1.9% 3.7% 0.9% Bayesian: 14.7% 14.2% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.6% 8.4% 1.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.7% 1.2% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 98.0% 27.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 77.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL312020 IOTA 11/16/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL312020 IOTA 11/16/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 54 0( 54) 0( 54) 0( 54) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 52 0( 52) 0( 52) 0( 52) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 140 141 107 74 53 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 140 139 105 72 51 33 28 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 140 137 136 103 82 64 59 57 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 6HR AGO 140 134 131 130 109 91 86 84 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 NOW 140 131 125 122 121 103 98 96 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 IN 6HR 140 141 132 126 123 115 110 108 107 107 107 107 107 107 107 107 107 IN 12HR 140 141 107 98 92 88 83 81 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80