* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IOTA AL312020 11/16/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 128 129 127 122 110 101 94 82 78 72 70 74 77 80 81 81 V (KT) LAND 120 128 129 127 96 50 34 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 120 130 131 125 96 49 34 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 8 9 12 14 10 7 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 0 -2 0 1 3 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 151 114 76 91 88 94 131 132 205 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.6 29.0 28.9 29.0 28.7 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 143 144 150 149 151 146 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 145 141 137 137 144 142 144 140 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 5 4 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 71 73 69 71 73 76 77 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 32 30 32 31 22 17 13 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 90 91 96 112 130 169 187 139 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 99 144 160 143 117 76 58 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 0 1 0 0 2 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 281 192 103 28 -39 -154 -146 -111 -49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.2 14.5 14.4 14.1 13.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 80.7 81.5 82.3 83.0 83.7 85.1 86.7 88.2 89.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 25 22 26 29 4 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -5. -13. -22. -31. -38. -43. -46. -49. -52. -55. -56. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -4. 2. 6. 10. 13. 15. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 2. 3. 1. -0. -5. -7. -4. -2. -1. -2. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -7. -15. -22. -28. -29. -31. -32. -32. -31. -30. -28. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 9. 7. 2. -10. -19. -26. -38. -42. -48. -50. -46. -43. -40. -39. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 13.5 80.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL312020 IOTA 11/16/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 40.0 -49.5 to 33.0 1.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.23 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 313.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.61 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 124.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.71 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 47% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 47.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 56.1% 62.7% 45.9% 39.7% 22.0% 23.8% 16.5% 6.5% Bayesian: 16.2% 4.5% 3.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 39.9% 22.4% 16.5% 13.4% 7.5% 8.0% 5.5% 2.2% DTOPS: 54.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL312020 IOTA 11/16/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL312020 IOTA 11/16/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 44( 62) 0( 62) 0( 62) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 89 45( 94) 0( 94) 0( 94) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 128 129 127 96 50 34 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 120 119 120 118 87 41 25 20 19 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 12HR AGO 120 117 116 114 83 37 21 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 79 33 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 120 111 105 102 101 55 39 34 33 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 IN 6HR 120 128 119 113 110 91 75 70 69 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 IN 12HR 120 128 129 120 114 110 94 89 88 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87