* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IOTA AL312020 11/15/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 88 95 101 107 109 103 95 90 83 75 74 74 77 79 82 82 V (KT) LAND 80 88 95 101 107 85 47 33 29 27 24 22 23 26 28 31 31 V (KT) LGEM 80 88 95 100 103 82 45 32 28 27 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 4 6 5 9 11 10 8 6 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 2 2 3 0 -3 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 47 191 176 121 82 90 105 76 68 44 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.5 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.2 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 149 146 143 150 152 150 151 138 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 147 148 144 140 136 144 145 143 145 132 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 6 5 4 5 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 70 70 69 68 73 75 77 76 79 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 31 31 32 34 32 26 20 17 13 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 83 84 94 96 101 130 160 187 165 129 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 92 118 107 109 126 95 84 82 84 77 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 1 0 0 1 0 -2 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 405 376 275 193 110 -31 -163 -196 -95 -52 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.1 14.0 13.9 13.7 13.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.9 79.8 80.7 81.4 82.2 83.7 85.0 86.2 87.6 89.1 90.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 50 46 35 26 22 29 4 4 12 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. -6. -14. -20. -26. -31. -32. -32. -31. -30. -29. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 11. 8. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 15. 21. 27. 29. 23. 15. 10. 3. -5. -6. -6. -3. -1. 2. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 13.2 78.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL312020 IOTA 11/15/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 16.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.88 7.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 8.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 3.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 205.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 4.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.32 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.65 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 34% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 5.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 10.7 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 36% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 33.9% 62.1% 47.0% 36.7% 26.7% 36.4% 28.6% 21.2% Logistic: 43.2% 63.0% 48.7% 44.3% 26.9% 26.5% 14.3% 11.1% Bayesian: 64.4% 79.3% 76.1% 51.6% 38.5% 50.6% 7.3% 4.6% Consensus: 47.2% 68.1% 57.2% 44.2% 30.7% 37.8% 16.8% 12.3% DTOPS: 52.0% 90.0% 53.0% 23.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL312020 IOTA 11/15/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL312020 IOTA 11/15/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 17( 23) 27( 44) 0( 44) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 70 69( 91) 20( 93) 0( 93) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 88 95 101 107 85 47 33 29 27 24 22 23 26 28 31 31 18HR AGO 80 79 86 92 98 76 38 24 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 82 88 66 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 76 54 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 88 79 73 70 45 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 80 88 95 86 80 76 38 24 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS