* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IOTA AL312020 11/15/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 85 94 103 111 120 116 108 98 87 78 73 72 74 76 77 77 V (KT) LAND 75 85 94 103 111 120 70 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 75 85 93 100 106 110 66 39 30 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 1 5 4 5 15 13 9 9 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -1 2 2 -3 -2 -1 -2 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 327 258 182 165 127 83 89 100 56 47 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.5 29.1 28.9 29.0 28.6 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 151 149 146 143 152 149 150 144 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 145 146 146 145 141 135 144 142 144 139 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -52.9 -52.5 -53.1 -52.9 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 68 69 67 68 68 72 78 76 78 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 28 29 31 34 28 24 18 14 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 83 81 90 96 124 144 179 175 143 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 95 97 118 97 96 101 90 66 58 62 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 3 2 1 1 -1 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 419 433 383 290 197 32 -88 -171 -163 -100 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.2 14.0 13.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.1 78.9 79.7 80.5 81.4 82.9 84.2 85.5 86.9 88.4 90.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 7 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 50 50 46 37 26 26 22 8 4 10 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 64.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 16. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 1. -4. -13. -20. -24. -24. -24. -24. -23. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 10. 15. 22. 20. 15. 8. 2. -3. -9. -12. -14. -14. -15. -15. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 10. 19. 28. 36. 45. 41. 33. 23. 12. 3. -2. -3. -1. 1. 2. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 13.3 78.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL312020 IOTA 11/15/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 19.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.93 8.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.28 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 8.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 4.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 228.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 4.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.37 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.60 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 39% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 68% is 6.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 13.8 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 46% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 35% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 38.7% 68.3% 51.5% 43.7% 34.4% 46.0% 34.8% 21.9% Logistic: 47.7% 73.3% 61.4% 58.0% 37.9% 39.9% 23.7% 19.2% Bayesian: 70.1% 85.4% 83.3% 64.4% 53.0% 59.9% 10.7% 2.2% Consensus: 52.2% 75.7% 65.4% 55.4% 41.8% 48.6% 23.1% 14.4% DTOPS: 52.0% 98.0% 87.0% 67.0% 9.0% 61.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL312020 IOTA 11/15/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL312020 IOTA 11/15/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 16( 20) 29( 43) 33( 62) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 41 86( 92) 37( 95) 24( 96) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 85 94 103 111 120 70 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 75 74 83 92 100 109 59 29 20 17 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 12HR AGO 75 72 71 80 88 97 47 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 73 82 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 75 85 76 70 67 69 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 75 85 94 85 79 75 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS