* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IOTA AL312020 11/15/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 75 88 99 108 121 122 115 104 94 81 76 74 76 78 80 80 V (KT) LAND 65 75 88 99 108 121 122 63 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 65 75 86 97 108 119 115 60 37 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 2 3 5 5 9 11 7 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -2 1 0 1 1 0 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 293 326 58 131 134 86 90 82 57 49 191 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.8 29.2 28.9 29.0 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 151 154 153 147 147 153 148 150 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 141 143 146 150 148 141 140 145 141 142 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 6 4 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 69 67 68 70 68 71 73 77 78 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 28 30 30 34 32 27 20 16 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 70 82 84 91 101 128 143 179 170 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 98 104 112 125 105 104 79 100 85 84 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 313 381 439 431 337 162 11 -107 -181 -147 -78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.3 14.2 14.0 13.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 77.0 77.7 78.4 79.3 80.1 81.7 83.1 84.4 85.6 86.9 88.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 52 55 54 47 26 27 5 7 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 72.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -7. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 4. 5. 9. 8. 2. -6. -12. -18. -19. -19. -19. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 7. 12. 18. 25. 23. 17. 9. 2. -4. -10. -14. -16. -16. -18. -17. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 10. 23. 34. 43. 56. 57. 50. 39. 29. 16. 11. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 13.0 77.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL312020 IOTA 11/15/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 21.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.93 9.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.34 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 9.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 5.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 184.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 4.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.48 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.64 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 40% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 78% is 7.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 13.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 18.3 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 67% is 14.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 40% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 48% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 39.9% 78.3% 57.9% 52.1% 45.9% 66.8% 40.0% 48.1% Logistic: 50.2% 82.2% 67.0% 60.2% 47.1% 56.5% 49.1% 36.2% Bayesian: 73.9% 87.9% 79.9% 61.0% 45.7% 68.3% 35.1% 8.6% Consensus: 54.7% 82.8% 68.3% 57.8% 46.2% 63.9% 41.4% 31.0% DTOPS: 51.0% 99.0% 97.0% 95.0% 21.0% 91.0% 50.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL312020 IOTA 11/15/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL312020 IOTA 11/15/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 11( 13) 28( 37) 34( 59) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 50( 52) 62( 82) 25( 86) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 75 88 99 108 121 122 63 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 65 64 77 88 97 110 111 52 27 19 17 16 16 16 16 16 16 12HR AGO 65 62 61 72 81 94 95 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 64 77 78 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 65 75 88 79 73 69 70 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS