* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IOTA AL312020 11/15/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 63 73 84 94 108 115 116 109 97 87 83 82 83 84 85 85 V (KT) LAND 55 63 73 84 94 108 115 79 44 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 62 70 79 89 107 116 82 44 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 7 8 7 3 5 10 9 8 13 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -6 -4 1 0 -3 -1 0 -3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 280 304 3 45 124 90 80 90 62 37 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 28.9 28.8 29.2 28.9 29.0 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 150 152 154 149 147 154 149 149 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 142 142 145 148 150 144 141 148 142 141 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.2 -53.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.1 -52.9 -52.3 -53.1 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 72 71 69 71 72 70 73 78 75 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 23 26 28 30 32 31 27 20 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 66 69 80 86 97 115 135 175 170 162 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 118 102 96 111 107 99 128 59 81 49 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -2 -1 1 2 1 0 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 258 315 373 393 400 226 58 -55 -203 -139 -49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.0 14.0 13.8 13.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 76.7 77.3 77.9 78.7 79.5 81.2 82.7 84.0 85.6 86.8 87.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 47 51 54 52 29 27 32 5 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 67.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. -7. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 11. 5. -4. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 11. 16. 23. 22. 15. 8. 2. -4. -9. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 18. 29. 39. 53. 60. 61. 54. 42. 32. 28. 27. 28. 29. 30. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.6 76.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL312020 IOTA 11/15/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 15.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.81 6.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.33 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 5.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 3.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 133.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 4.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.56 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.63 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 60% is 5.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 53% is 11.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 39% is 8.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 48% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.2% 60.4% 42.0% 30.1% 17.9% 52.8% 39.1% 47.7% Logistic: 22.6% 65.8% 44.8% 38.3% 24.0% 46.2% 34.8% 30.9% Bayesian: 38.8% 84.4% 59.7% 26.4% 18.1% 79.0% 31.3% 24.5% Consensus: 26.9% 70.2% 48.8% 31.6% 20.0% 59.3% 35.1% 34.4% DTOPS: 18.0% 96.0% 70.0% 44.0% 2.0% 65.0% 86.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL312020 IOTA 11/15/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL312020 IOTA 11/15/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 4( 4) 16( 19) 28( 42) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 6( 6) 42( 45) 7( 49) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 63 73 84 94 108 115 79 44 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 55 54 64 75 85 99 106 70 35 23 20 18 18 18 18 18 18 12HR AGO 55 52 51 62 72 86 93 57 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 55 69 76 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT