* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IOTA AL312020 11/14/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 58 65 75 87 99 106 102 93 84 79 76 79 81 83 83 V (KT) LAND 45 51 58 65 75 87 99 76 43 32 28 27 28 30 32 34 35 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 54 60 67 85 101 82 45 32 28 27 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 11 8 4 5 5 8 9 10 5 9 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -4 -2 -2 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 293 268 286 3 46 118 77 70 73 74 66 74 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.2 28.9 28.8 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.2 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 148 150 151 155 149 147 152 152 148 149 139 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 147 142 145 148 152 144 141 145 144 141 143 135 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.5 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 4 5 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 72 72 70 68 70 69 70 72 76 75 76 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 19 20 23 26 31 33 27 20 14 12 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 65 65 73 86 96 100 136 153 177 151 130 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 103 118 105 97 108 89 94 104 101 72 60 80 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -2 -2 -3 0 0 1 0 -1 0 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 230 280 334 407 424 244 89 -39 -165 -185 -89 -21 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.1 13.8 13.4 12.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 76.4 77.0 77.5 78.3 79.2 81.0 82.4 83.8 85.0 86.2 87.5 89.1 91.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 9 9 8 7 6 6 6 8 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 45 49 54 54 32 25 31 4 4 12 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 49.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 23. 24. 24. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 13. 16. 9. -1. -9. -13. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 11. 16. 15. 10. 6. 2. -2. -6. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 20. 30. 42. 54. 61. 57. 48. 39. 34. 31. 34. 36. 38. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.5 76.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL312020 IOTA 11/14/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 12.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.81 5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.32 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 3.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.66 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.63 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.89 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 4.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 33% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 40% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 55% is 10.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.3% 52.0% 34.6% 13.3% 12.5% 32.5% 40.4% 54.8% Logistic: 16.6% 59.6% 40.2% 21.8% 9.0% 28.1% 21.7% 30.5% Bayesian: 14.4% 44.0% 28.7% 5.5% 3.3% 44.3% 50.4% 57.7% Consensus: 13.4% 51.9% 34.5% 13.6% 8.3% 35.0% 37.5% 47.7% DTOPS: 7.0% 69.0% 25.0% 12.0% 2.0% 36.0% 90.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL312020 IOTA 11/14/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL312020 IOTA 11/14/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 5( 5) 10( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 26( 26) 19( 40) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 51 58 65 75 87 99 76 43 32 28 27 28 30 32 34 35 18HR AGO 45 44 51 58 68 80 92 69 36 25 21 20 21 23 25 27 28 12HR AGO 45 42 41 48 58 70 82 59 26 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 45 57 69 46 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT