* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IOTA AL312020 11/14/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 45 50 61 71 84 93 94 87 82 78 80 81 83 83 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 45 50 61 71 84 76 46 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 39 42 49 58 71 70 44 32 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 13 11 12 9 7 8 7 8 6 5 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 261 260 252 277 101 148 99 94 56 25 34 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.8 29.1 29.2 28.8 29.1 29.0 28.6 28.7 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 155 152 148 153 154 148 152 150 144 146 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 149 149 147 146 142 148 149 141 144 143 136 140 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.6 -52.6 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -53.0 -52.9 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 9 8 6 7 7 7 6 6 4 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 66 66 66 67 66 66 68 72 75 77 72 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 17 18 22 24 29 31 28 22 17 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 88 72 70 73 66 77 90 104 132 152 157 131 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 70 53 100 104 81 117 110 75 76 77 54 59 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 0 1 0 2 0 -3 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 269 284 305 337 383 411 301 129 -26 -108 -109 -138 -88 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.7 13.7 13.8 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.7 14.9 14.9 14.8 14.5 14.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.5 75.0 75.4 76.1 76.8 78.6 80.4 82.0 83.5 84.8 86.1 87.6 89.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 7 8 9 8 8 6 7 7 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 53 52 51 53 57 53 43 26 37 13 31 15 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 27. 30. 32. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 14. 18. 14. 4. -3. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 26. 36. 49. 58. 59. 52. 47. 43. 45. 46. 48. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.6 74.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL312020 IOTA 11/14/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.35 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.75 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.52 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 49% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 20.3% 14.1% 9.9% 9.1% 12.2% 20.2% 49.5% Logistic: 6.2% 29.9% 13.3% 5.2% 2.5% 15.9% 23.7% 43.8% Bayesian: 1.5% 12.2% 2.4% 0.4% 0.3% 3.2% 20.2% 33.8% Consensus: 4.6% 20.8% 9.9% 5.2% 3.9% 10.4% 21.4% 42.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 12.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 34.0% 63.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL312020 IOTA 11/14/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL312020 IOTA 11/14/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 41 45 50 61 71 84 76 46 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 37 41 46 57 67 80 72 42 29 25 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 40 51 61 74 66 36 23 19 17 17 17 17 17 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 30 41 51 64 56 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT