* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IOTA AL312020 11/14/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 51 57 67 77 85 95 95 88 82 77 79 80 82 82 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 51 57 67 77 85 95 64 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 47 55 66 79 91 64 40 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 11 10 8 8 2 7 7 11 9 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -2 -1 0 2 0 -3 -3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 247 253 247 240 331 151 116 91 89 83 57 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.9 29.4 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.7 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 156 153 150 150 158 149 150 150 146 146 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 147 151 149 145 143 145 154 144 143 142 138 140 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -52.6 -52.7 -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -53.0 -52.5 -53.3 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 9 8 6 7 6 7 5 5 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 68 67 66 68 68 68 68 67 70 73 73 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 14 16 17 19 23 25 29 27 22 17 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 92 85 76 77 76 69 83 100 124 137 163 143 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 61 68 110 118 87 103 88 98 88 82 40 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -1 0 0 -2 -1 0 2 3 1 -1 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 278 277 288 309 336 416 366 183 24 -57 -91 -102 -131 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.7 13.6 13.7 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.2 15.0 14.8 14.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.1 74.6 75.2 75.7 76.3 77.8 79.8 81.5 83.0 84.4 85.7 87.1 88.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 5 6 9 9 8 7 6 7 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 56 53 51 51 53 56 46 29 33 31 32 28 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):200/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 22. 25. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. 12. 18. 15. 7. -1. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 11. 8. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 22. 32. 42. 50. 60. 60. 53. 47. 42. 44. 45. 47. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.7 74.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL312020 IOTA 11/14/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 8.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.72 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.35 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.74 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.75 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.52 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 36% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 55% is 10.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 43.0% 25.9% 12.2% 11.3% 18.3% 36.4% 55.0% Logistic: 16.3% 44.4% 24.9% 9.6% 3.8% 23.3% 37.1% 44.8% Bayesian: 6.3% 37.0% 12.7% 2.3% 1.6% 23.6% 31.1% 46.9% Consensus: 10.4% 41.5% 21.2% 8.0% 5.6% 21.7% 34.9% 48.9% DTOPS: 4.0% 23.0% 11.0% 3.0% 2.0% 4.0% 4.0% 63.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL312020 IOTA 11/14/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL312020 IOTA 11/14/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 40 45 51 57 67 77 85 95 64 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 39 45 51 61 71 79 89 58 34 25 22 21 21 21 21 12HR AGO 35 32 31 37 43 53 63 71 81 50 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 31 41 51 59 69 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT