* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTYONE AL312020 11/13/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 46 51 57 67 80 90 98 102 98 91 85 87 89 92 91 V (KT) LAND 35 40 46 51 57 67 80 90 98 53 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 40 44 48 52 60 72 90 102 56 36 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 10 10 8 4 2 5 7 8 12 8 2 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 1 -1 -4 -4 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 261 233 234 239 246 326 88 108 91 66 45 30 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.4 28.9 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.7 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 156 155 152 151 158 149 152 150 145 146 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 148 150 148 147 145 147 155 144 146 143 137 138 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -53.0 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 8 6 7 7 7 5 5 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 69 69 67 69 71 69 68 70 71 71 74 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 14 15 16 18 23 26 28 30 26 20 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 85 91 89 81 77 80 86 101 119 149 168 153 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 55 72 63 103 80 84 101 80 94 87 55 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -3 -2 0 -3 -1 0 2 0 -3 -4 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 300 289 288 298 317 428 389 183 0 -102 -99 -119 -122 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.9 13.8 13.6 13.6 13.5 13.7 14.0 14.5 14.7 14.9 14.9 14.7 14.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.2 74.7 75.2 75.7 76.3 77.8 79.6 81.5 83.2 84.7 86.0 87.3 88.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 8 9 8 8 7 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 57 53 51 50 51 55 46 29 31 19 32 28 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 22. 25. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 10. 15. 18. 20. 14. 5. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 10. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 22. 32. 45. 55. 63. 67. 63. 56. 50. 52. 54. 57. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.9 74.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL312020 THIRTYONE 11/13/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 9.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.78 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.35 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.76 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.45 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 58% is 11.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 40.3% 24.5% 12.5% 11.3% 19.1% 36.5% 57.6% Logistic: 11.5% 37.4% 20.9% 9.6% 3.3% 29.8% 41.5% 50.7% Bayesian: 10.5% 50.8% 27.1% 6.4% 3.8% 25.2% 44.2% 49.3% Consensus: 10.2% 42.8% 24.2% 9.5% 6.1% 24.7% 40.7% 52.6% DTOPS: 4.0% 16.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 48.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL312020 THIRTYONE 11/13/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL312020 THIRTYONE 11/13/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 40 46 51 57 67 80 90 98 53 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 40 45 51 61 74 84 92 47 29 24 22 21 21 21 21 12HR AGO 35 32 31 36 42 52 65 75 83 38 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 31 41 54 64 72 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT