* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTYONE AL312020 11/13/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 48 56 67 79 91 97 94 92 85 83 83 87 87 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 48 56 67 79 91 54 36 30 28 27 29 32 33 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 38 41 47 54 66 81 51 34 29 27 27 32 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 7 10 10 8 7 2 8 7 8 7 4 1 6 3 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 -1 -4 0 3 -1 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 262 230 216 215 228 225 47 117 113 91 60 40 97 34 123 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.8 29.4 29.0 29.0 29.1 28.7 28.6 29.0 27.8 27.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 155 152 148 148 158 151 151 152 145 144 151 134 125 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 147 147 147 144 141 142 153 147 145 144 137 135 144 129 121 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -52.6 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 7 6 6 4 4 4 5 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 67 68 66 65 65 67 69 69 73 73 75 73 74 73 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 13 14 17 20 22 27 29 25 22 15 10 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 76 86 89 82 80 81 98 115 135 157 159 116 104 68 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 47 61 69 57 89 73 99 76 92 73 112 26 22 8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 -3 -2 1 3 2 -3 -3 -4 1 13 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 319 336 337 350 366 405 410 215 22 -85 -90 -79 -81 -61 80 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 6 6 8 8 9 8 6 6 6 8 9 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 60 56 53 54 56 57 48 31 32 27 32 29 30 6 2 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 30. 33. 35. 36. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 20. 15. 9. -0. -7. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 5. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 26. 37. 49. 61. 67. 64. 62. 55. 53. 53. 57. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.3 74.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL312020 THIRTYONE 11/13/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.37 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.78 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.39 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 51% is 9.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 25.3% 15.6% 11.6% 10.5% 12.8% 23.4% 51.4% Logistic: 9.7% 35.7% 20.8% 11.5% 4.5% 31.7% 39.9% 51.1% Bayesian: 6.4% 44.5% 22.7% 7.0% 2.1% 21.9% 21.5% 43.1% Consensus: 7.9% 35.1% 19.7% 10.0% 5.7% 22.2% 28.3% 48.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 34.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL312020 THIRTYONE 11/13/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL312020 THIRTYONE 11/13/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 43 48 56 67 79 91 54 36 30 28 27 29 32 33 18HR AGO 30 29 33 38 43 51 62 74 86 49 31 25 23 22 24 27 28 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 36 44 55 67 79 42 24 18 16 15 17 20 21 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 33 44 56 68 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT