* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THETA AL302020 11/15/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 21 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 21 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 21 19 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 48 41 38 41 37 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 3 7 2 2 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 24 25 24 27 42 87 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.1 22.2 22.2 21.7 21.5 19.6 18.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 84 85 86 85 85 81 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 74 74 76 76 77 75 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.4 -57.2 -57.0 -57.2 -57.3 -57.3 -56.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 1.4 1.3 0.8 -0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 43 40 37 34 35 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 14 12 11 9 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -48 -56 -84 -107 -127 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -38 -43 -55 -44 -14 13 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 6 9 10 -2 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 643 648 657 724 760 658 408 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.4 31.8 32.1 33.0 33.9 36.8 40.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 18.3 18.0 17.8 17.7 17.6 16.3 13.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 6 9 12 18 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):105/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 2. -6. -14. -22. -29. -34. -39. -45. -49. -51. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. 20. 18. 17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -17. -20. -22. -24. -25. -26. -26. -26. -25. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -9. -17. -25. -31. -35. -38. -41. -45. -48. -51. -54. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 31.4 18.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL302020 THETA 11/15/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 36.6 to 2.8 1.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 181.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.20 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -38.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 97.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.03 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL302020 THETA 11/15/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 23 22 21 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 23 22 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 20 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT