* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THETA AL302020 11/13/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 49 49 48 43 34 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 49 49 49 48 43 34 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 48 47 47 46 44 39 33 28 24 22 22 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 28 25 21 24 43 48 46 34 33 10 12 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 0 -3 -2 -9 -3 2 2 3 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 271 276 289 317 341 15 17 14 13 35 66 178 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.7 22.4 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.1 22.0 21.9 21.6 21.4 20.7 19.5 18.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 91 89 87 87 87 85 84 82 83 83 82 79 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 81 79 78 78 78 75 73 72 73 74 74 73 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.0 -58.3 -58.4 -58.1 -57.7 -57.6 -56.9 -56.7 -56.9 -57.2 -57.6 -58.2 -58.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 39 41 42 43 47 48 42 33 32 34 30 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 26 26 24 22 19 15 12 9 7 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 25 6 -8 -10 -10 -3 -28 -51 -98 -106 -89 -115 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 29 54 38 -17 -22 -44 -45 -48 -10 35 8 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 5 1 1 7 3 3 4 12 -5 -16 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1334 1234 1138 1051 965 809 714 670 700 801 870 674 364 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.7 31.8 31.8 31.8 31.7 31.3 31.1 31.2 31.8 33.1 35.0 37.2 39.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 26.5 25.3 24.1 23.1 22.0 20.4 19.4 18.8 18.7 18.8 18.4 16.6 13.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 6 3 2 5 8 11 15 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 12 CX,CY: 12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -16. -18. -21. -22. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -10. -18. -23. -28. -28. -27. -28. -31. -33. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 16. 19. 20. 19. 17. 17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -9. -16. -21. -27. -30. -32. -35. -33. -32. -31. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -7. -16. -30. -41. -51. -56. -56. -58. -59. -61. -63. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 31.7 26.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL302020 THETA 11/13/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.13 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 368.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.55 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.01 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 92.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.08 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 8.6% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 3.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL302020 THETA 11/13/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 49 49 48 43 34 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 49 49 48 43 34 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 45 40 31 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 39 34 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT