* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THETA AL302020 11/11/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 44 44 44 43 44 37 27 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 47 44 44 44 43 44 37 27 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 46 43 41 40 39 40 40 38 35 31 28 29 31 33 N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 45 49 41 33 34 29 23 32 35 32 21 9 10 30 56 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 -3 -4 -2 -5 -4 -4 -1 -3 -2 -4 3 -2 1 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 242 251 249 255 283 304 358 24 6 5 349 212 198 211 N/A N/A SST (C) 23.9 23.8 23.4 23.1 22.9 22.6 22.0 22.0 21.9 21.7 21.7 21.5 19.9 18.1 15.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 97 96 94 93 91 89 86 85 83 82 83 84 81 79 75 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 86 84 83 83 81 80 76 75 73 72 73 75 75 75 72 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -56.7 -56.4 -56.9 -57.4 -58.1 -58.2 -57.7 -57.4 -57.6 -57.5 -57.8 -57.4 -57.4 -56.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.3 -0.2 -0.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 42 43 42 43 40 44 46 48 46 40 35 40 49 60 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 26 27 26 26 26 23 20 15 12 9 7 8 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 37 36 35 37 27 3 -18 -16 -18 -52 -92 -55 -15 -15 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 57 35 26 53 53 23 49 -38 -31 -34 -26 0 33 45 42 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -7 -13 -13 -15 2 0 6 -4 -1 6 -8 -1 -24 19 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1783 1711 1640 1541 1441 1270 1111 997 922 869 850 899 824 498 232 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.3 30.6 30.8 31.0 31.2 31.6 31.9 32.2 32.2 32.4 32.7 34.0 36.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 32.4 31.4 30.5 29.3 28.0 25.8 23.7 22.1 21.2 20.4 19.9 19.2 18.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 11 10 10 8 6 3 3 5 10 17 27 30 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 10 CX,CY: 9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -17. -19. -20. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -15. -20. -25. -27. -26. -24. -27. -33. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 18. 18. 16. 15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -20. -26. -30. -33. -31. -33. -32. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -13. -23. -33. -42. -47. -48. -48. -57. -59. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 30.3 32.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL302020 THETA 11/11/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 309.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.62 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.05 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 99.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.01 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL302020 THETA 11/11/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 47 44 44 44 43 44 37 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 46 46 46 45 46 39 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 46 45 46 39 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 39 40 33 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT