* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THETA AL302020 11/11/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 48 47 45 43 41 35 27 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 51 48 47 45 43 41 35 27 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 52 49 46 44 41 40 41 40 37 33 30 30 33 38 N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP SUBT TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 51 48 51 43 34 39 25 30 33 25 24 12 3 12 42 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 -3 -5 -3 -9 -2 -4 0 0 -2 0 5 -1 9 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 236 230 242 253 257 265 293 321 16 25 23 15 19 185 190 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.4 24.1 23.9 23.7 23.3 23.0 22.4 22.1 22.1 21.9 21.7 21.6 21.0 19.2 18.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 100 97 97 96 94 92 88 85 84 83 83 83 83 79 77 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 87 85 85 85 83 82 79 75 73 73 73 74 75 73 72 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.5 -57.0 -56.5 -56.6 -57.0 -57.8 -58.5 -58.2 -57.8 -57.7 -57.6 -57.6 -57.9 -58.2 -57.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.3 1.6 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.9 0.5 0.0 -0.6 -0.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 3 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 41 41 43 42 41 43 45 46 48 50 46 46 54 60 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 27 28 27 26 26 23 22 19 16 13 10 11 17 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 37 38 30 43 35 31 -6 -23 -30 -42 -81 -95 4 26 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 55 34 32 59 23 62 -12 -35 -26 -20 1 17 61 68 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -9 -5 -9 -10 4 8 2 5 6 11 11 33 4 33 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1890 1830 1757 1663 1570 1389 1202 1064 1014 958 897 892 930 756 552 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.6 29.9 30.1 30.4 30.6 31.0 31.6 31.9 32.2 32.4 32.6 33.4 34.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 33.8 33.0 32.2 31.0 29.8 27.5 25.0 23.1 22.3 21.5 20.6 19.8 19.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 9 11 11 10 10 6 4 4 5 6 11 17 19 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19. -22. -25. -26. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -16. -20. -25. -27. -29. -28. -26. -24. -27. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 17. 18. 19. 18. 17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -16. -21. -26. -29. -27. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -20. -28. -37. -46. -52. -55. -50. -46. -48. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 29.6 33.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL302020 THETA 11/11/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 45.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 333.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.59 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.02 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 97.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.02 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL302020 THETA 11/11/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 51 48 47 45 43 41 35 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 51 50 48 46 44 38 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 50 48 46 44 38 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 43 41 39 33 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT