* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THETA AL302020 11/11/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 53 50 48 45 41 40 34 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 57 53 50 48 45 41 40 34 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 58 55 52 49 45 42 43 43 41 37 33 30 31 34 N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP SUBT TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 58 50 47 50 44 35 35 27 26 32 28 26 11 9 20 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 3 -2 -5 -4 -6 -7 1 -1 -2 -6 2 -3 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 234 233 243 250 255 284 282 359 32 15 16 343 279 201 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 24.5 24.2 23.9 23.8 23.2 23.0 22.4 22.2 22.0 21.8 21.5 20.9 19.8 19.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 101 100 98 96 96 93 92 88 85 83 83 83 81 78 75 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 88 87 86 85 85 83 82 78 75 73 72 74 73 70 69 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -57.3 -57.0 -56.6 -56.4 -57.3 -58.0 -58.1 -57.6 -57.7 -57.8 -57.6 -58.0 -58.6 -58.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.5 -0.2 -0.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 38 39 40 41 42 44 46 48 49 50 46 45 47 57 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 26 26 27 28 26 26 24 22 18 14 11 9 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 41 43 41 34 59 36 22 -7 -27 -27 -59 -98 -71 14 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 31 48 36 29 57 28 37 -31 -25 -21 -11 7 -1 71 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -8 -8 -5 -11 -10 9 5 6 1 0 8 9 4 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1999 1928 1859 1776 1709 1510 1303 1151 1031 971 970 977 976 890 802 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.4 29.6 29.7 30.0 30.2 30.6 31.2 31.9 32.2 32.5 32.9 33.7 35.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 35.1 34.3 33.4 32.5 31.6 29.1 26.4 24.2 22.5 21.6 21.3 20.7 19.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 11 11 9 5 3 3 7 8 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -16. -19. -21. -24. -27. -30. -32. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -10. -13. -17. -22. -25. -27. -30. -31. -32. -30. -28. -28. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 18. 18. 17. 16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 1. 0. -2. -2. -6. -10. -17. -22. -27. -28. -24. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -10. -12. -15. -19. -20. -26. -35. -45. -54. -58. -57. -52. -54. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 29.4 35.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL302020 THETA 11/11/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 50.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 371.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.55 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 94.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.05 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL302020 THETA 11/11/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL302020 THETA 11/11/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 57 53 50 48 45 41 40 34 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 55 52 50 47 43 42 36 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 53 51 48 44 43 37 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 48 45 41 40 34 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT