* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THETA AL302020 11/11/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 52 50 48 45 42 42 37 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 57 52 50 48 45 42 42 37 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 58 55 52 49 44 42 43 45 44 39 34 32 31 31 N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT EXTP SUBT N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 61 58 52 46 48 32 31 26 31 35 27 23 13 18 24 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -2 2 -3 -4 -5 -4 -5 3 2 -1 1 -1 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 239 241 239 236 241 261 267 294 333 8 19 4 353 280 282 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 24.5 24.3 24.0 23.8 23.0 22.7 22.4 22.2 21.8 21.8 21.7 21.0 19.2 18.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 101 99 97 97 92 90 88 86 84 83 83 82 79 77 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 90 88 87 86 85 82 80 78 76 75 73 73 74 72 71 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.3 -57.2 -57.6 -57.2 -57.0 -57.3 -57.9 -58.3 -58.0 -58.0 -57.8 -57.8 -57.9 -58.6 -60.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 41 40 39 40 47 47 47 49 51 56 55 49 48 56 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 25 26 27 27 26 27 25 24 20 17 16 15 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 47 48 41 49 67 50 40 14 -19 -50 -76 -93 -102 -43 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 43 47 50 44 58 32 76 -35 -30 -16 -19 -6 27 32 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -13 -9 -5 -10 -15 -1 13 5 12 8 19 29 58 46 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2063 1993 1925 1827 1744 1554 1378 1225 1106 984 892 889 921 756 536 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.4 29.7 30.0 30.2 30.4 31.0 31.7 32.2 32.7 33.0 33.2 33.8 35.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 35.8 34.9 34.0 32.9 31.9 29.4 27.0 24.9 23.1 21.4 20.0 19.3 19.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 9 9 10 11 10 8 7 7 5 5 10 15 17 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 11 CX,CY: 11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -21. -24. -27. -30. -31. -33. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -14. -18. -22. -26. -29. -32. -34. -34. -32. -31. -32. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. 16. 18. 19. 20. 18. 18. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -5. -8. -13. -18. -20. -21. -25. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -10. -12. -15. -18. -18. -23. -31. -41. -49. -51. -52. -58. -60. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 29.4 35.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL302020 THETA 11/11/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 53.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 362.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 93.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.07 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL302020 THETA 11/11/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL302020 THETA 11/11/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 57 52 50 48 45 42 42 37 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 54 52 50 47 44 44 39 31 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 54 52 49 46 46 41 33 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 48 45 42 42 37 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT