* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THETA AL302020 11/10/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 57 53 51 46 42 39 39 31 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 60 57 53 51 46 42 39 39 31 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 62 61 58 54 48 44 43 44 44 41 36 31 29 29 31 32 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 57 60 60 54 47 45 29 34 29 38 38 27 26 21 10 31 64 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -7 -4 0 -6 0 -4 -4 -3 -4 3 -2 -2 -1 -6 5 SHEAR DIR 227 237 242 241 243 259 269 296 303 345 355 5 349 345 277 214 213 SST (C) 24.6 24.5 24.4 24.1 23.8 23.1 22.6 22.4 22.0 21.8 21.5 21.2 20.9 19.4 18.1 16.5 14.0 POT. INT. (KT) 103 101 101 98 97 93 90 89 86 85 83 82 81 78 76 74 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 92 90 89 87 85 83 81 79 77 76 74 72 73 72 71 70 68 200 MB T (C) -57.7 -57.5 -57.4 -57.8 -57.7 -57.3 -58.0 -58.7 -58.4 -58.2 -58.0 -58.1 -58.3 -58.6 -58.8 -59.4 -57.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 -0.4 -0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 38 40 42 42 41 46 51 54 53 55 59 58 56 55 58 55 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 24 24 26 27 26 26 27 25 23 20 16 13 11 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 78 68 57 49 36 53 60 33 23 16 -2 -36 -60 -84 -68 -26 -60 200 MB DIV 54 38 49 43 50 39 63 72 26 -32 -29 -25 -42 22 22 50 43 700-850 TADV -14 -10 -14 -15 -8 -18 -9 8 14 17 11 16 28 39 52 -4 -59 LAND (KM) 2143 2040 1939 1857 1761 1601 1391 1207 1053 914 817 735 702 571 425 288 414 LAT (DEG N) 29.3 29.5 29.7 30.1 30.4 31.1 31.8 32.3 32.8 33.2 33.6 34.2 35.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.7 35.5 34.3 33.2 32.1 29.9 27.1 24.6 22.4 20.3 18.4 17.2 16.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 11 11 10 9 9 7 6 8 13 17 20 21 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 13 CX,CY: 13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. -23. -26. -29. -31. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -12. -15. -21. -25. -29. -33. -36. -39. -39. -39. -39. -38. -38. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 16. 17. 18. 20. 21. 21. 20. 21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. -0. -2. -0. -4. -8. -13. -18. -22. -24. -21. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -3. -7. -9. -14. -18. -21. -21. -29. -38. -47. -54. -58. -59. -57. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 29.3 36.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL302020 THETA 11/10/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 55.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 354.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.57 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.01 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 97.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.03 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL302020 THETA 11/10/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL302020 THETA 11/10/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 60 57 53 51 46 42 39 39 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 56 52 50 45 41 38 38 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 52 50 45 41 38 38 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 48 43 39 36 36 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT