* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THETA AL302020 11/10/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 58 53 50 44 42 39 34 32 28 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 61 58 53 50 44 42 39 34 32 28 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 63 62 59 55 48 43 40 40 41 41 40 37 35 33 34 33 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 53 59 62 62 54 49 36 36 31 29 22 29 22 27 18 14 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -4 -7 -4 -2 -4 -5 -6 -4 1 -3 1 -3 -3 5 13 SHEAR DIR 230 228 239 241 238 243 259 267 280 298 339 350 4 356 338 233 233 SST (C) 24.8 24.8 24.7 24.6 24.4 23.9 23.1 22.9 22.6 22.2 21.9 21.7 21.5 20.6 18.8 16.0 11.0 POT. INT. (KT) 104 104 102 101 100 97 93 91 89 87 85 84 84 83 80 77 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 93 91 90 89 88 86 83 81 79 77 75 74 74 75 76 75 72 200 MB T (C) -57.6 -57.5 -57.5 -57.2 -57.4 -57.0 -57.3 -58.1 -58.2 -57.6 -57.9 -57.8 -58.0 -58.2 -59.0 -59.4 -57.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.5 1.2 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.6 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 40 40 40 39 39 45 48 52 51 51 50 50 47 46 45 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 26 24 24 25 27 26 24 25 24 22 20 17 15 15 20 850 MB ENV VOR 91 79 62 51 48 65 70 62 41 29 12 1 -30 -46 -76 -36 -107 200 MB DIV 71 58 45 42 39 30 61 46 31 -43 -21 -38 -20 -6 20 41 32 700-850 TADV -23 -14 -7 -10 -11 -6 -22 -2 12 14 8 6 15 19 46 -57 -110 LAND (KM) 2252 2147 2043 1968 1895 1731 1536 1342 1182 1052 923 842 817 764 570 377 -39 LAT (DEG N) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.5 30.1 30.8 31.3 31.7 32.1 32.5 33.0 33.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.0 36.8 35.7 34.8 33.9 31.9 29.3 26.8 24.7 22.8 21.0 19.5 18.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 8 9 11 12 10 9 8 7 6 8 14 25 35 39 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 13 CX,CY: 13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. -22. -25. -28. -29. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -12. -16. -23. -28. -34. -38. -40. -40. -40. -39. -40. -40. -38. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 18. 19. 19. 18. 18. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. -1. -4. -4. -5. -9. -13. -17. -19. -18. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -2. -7. -10. -16. -18. -21. -26. -28. -32. -39. -44. -50. -53. -51. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 28.9 38.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL302020 THETA 11/10/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 58.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 365.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.02 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL302020 THETA 11/10/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL302020 THETA 11/10/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 61 58 53 50 44 42 39 34 32 28 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 56 51 48 42 40 37 32 30 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 51 48 42 40 37 32 30 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 47 41 39 36 31 29 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT