* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THETA AL302020 11/10/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 49 49 47 44 41 40 36 35 29 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 48 49 49 47 44 41 40 36 35 29 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 48 49 48 46 40 37 34 33 35 37 38 36 33 30 29 28 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 48 52 59 63 61 49 44 32 33 22 28 33 28 31 25 8 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -4 -4 -6 0 -5 -7 -10 -6 -6 -4 0 -2 0 5 12 SHEAR DIR 233 229 229 239 241 237 244 251 270 272 6 342 1 358 353 353 193 SST (C) 25.2 24.7 24.9 24.8 24.7 24.3 23.9 23.3 22.9 22.7 22.2 21.8 21.8 21.5 19.8 18.1 14.3 POT. INT. (KT) 107 103 104 104 102 99 97 93 91 90 87 84 84 84 81 79 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 94 91 92 91 90 87 85 82 81 80 78 75 74 75 74 75 71 200 MB T (C) -57.5 -57.5 -57.5 -57.5 -57.2 -57.1 -56.7 -57.7 -58.4 -58.1 -57.9 -57.9 -58.1 -58.0 -58.5 -59.6 -59.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.2 1.1 0.3 -0.5 -0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 39 36 37 37 36 38 37 40 43 49 56 58 56 49 47 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 24 25 23 24 25 26 24 24 22 21 19 16 12 14 10 850 MB ENV VOR 98 86 69 69 56 54 56 63 42 34 -1 -19 -43 -61 -77 -37 -68 200 MB DIV 79 66 43 37 33 31 35 29 41 35 -28 -10 -22 -23 -10 58 43 700-850 TADV -21 -19 -12 -6 -9 -7 -14 -13 1 2 1 16 10 22 20 16 -20 LAND (KM) 2298 2331 2223 2119 2016 1881 1731 1579 1428 1266 1122 992 920 882 759 591 579 LAT (DEG N) 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.6 30.1 30.6 31.1 31.7 32.5 33.0 33.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.0 38.8 37.7 36.5 35.4 33.7 31.9 29.9 27.9 25.7 23.4 21.5 20.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 8 9 9 9 10 10 7 6 10 17 26 29 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -20. -28. -35. -39. -42. -44. -46. -48. -50. -49. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 19. 19. 18. 19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -16. -21. -17. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -4. -5. -9. -10. -16. -22. -29. -37. -44. -42. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 28.8 40.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL302020 THETA 11/10/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 56.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 283.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL302020 THETA 11/10/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL302020 THETA 11/10/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 49 49 47 44 41 40 36 35 29 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 45 45 43 40 37 36 32 31 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 39 36 33 32 28 27 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 30 27 26 22 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT