* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THETA AL302020 11/10/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 51 50 44 38 37 31 27 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 51 50 44 38 37 31 27 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 48 49 49 47 41 37 34 32 32 34 35 36 35 32 29 28 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 46 47 52 59 66 56 51 37 32 29 25 22 29 27 31 20 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -1 -3 -4 -4 -3 -8 -4 -7 -5 0 -2 -2 0 -1 8 SHEAR DIR 226 232 232 230 238 237 241 255 266 284 308 335 336 339 334 335 215 SST (C) 25.5 25.0 24.7 24.8 24.7 24.4 23.9 23.2 22.7 22.4 22.1 21.8 21.6 21.2 20.2 18.9 17.2 POT. INT. (KT) 110 106 103 103 102 100 97 93 91 88 87 85 84 83 81 78 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 94 91 91 90 88 86 83 81 78 77 76 75 74 74 73 70 200 MB T (C) -58.1 -57.8 -57.6 -57.5 -57.4 -57.4 -57.0 -57.6 -58.3 -58.5 -58.1 -57.9 -58.0 -58.3 -58.5 -59.2 -59.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.9 -0.2 0.9 0.9 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.2 -0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 51 46 40 36 36 37 37 39 41 49 52 58 59 56 49 45 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 22 24 25 22 23 26 24 22 21 20 19 17 13 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 120 97 90 82 70 40 54 64 44 29 24 15 9 -5 -48 -76 -22 200 MB DIV 85 80 80 58 37 20 30 56 37 72 -37 -7 -24 -24 -18 12 38 700-850 TADV -20 -21 -24 -13 -5 -15 -10 -19 -4 10 9 10 12 17 31 31 24 LAND (KM) 2255 2296 2295 2198 2102 1935 1774 1601 1399 1234 1106 955 807 758 696 553 432 LAT (DEG N) 28.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 9 9 9 10 11 11 9 9 8 8 9 13 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 12 CX,CY: 12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -20. -30. -37. -42. -45. -46. -48. -50. -52. -52. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 19. 20. 20. 18. 19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. -2. -2. 1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -20. -23. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 5. -1. -7. -8. -14. -18. -23. -27. -31. -36. -43. -49. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 28.8 41.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL302020 THETA 11/10/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 54.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 263.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 97.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.03 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL302020 THETA 11/10/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL302020 THETA 11/10/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 50 51 50 44 38 37 31 27 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 46 47 46 40 34 33 27 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 41 35 29 28 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 28 22 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT