* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/12/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 50 46 42 39 33 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 50 39 38 36 30 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 50 39 34 36 33 29 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 17 20 23 30 44 63 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 12 12 6 2 5 9 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 284 277 259 252 251 280 280 284 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 23.5 22.5 23.4 25.2 26.7 24.3 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 95 89 95 108 124 105 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 100 85 81 85 96 111 96 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.6 -54.3 -54.1 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.2 0.4 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 2 4 3 1 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 54 48 41 33 30 30 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 17 15 13 12 8 8 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 38 28 37 15 -23 -38 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 24 14 45 38 14 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 7 14 18 12 22 -59 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 54 20 -83 19 92 118 290 557 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.9 28.9 29.8 30.6 31.4 33.1 35.1 37.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.4 82.9 82.4 81.3 80.2 77.2 72.6 66.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 12 14 18 24 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 1 13 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 11 CX,CY: 2/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 718 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -10. -22. -29. -34. -39. -42. -45. -48. -52. -54. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -23. -25. -27. -28. -29. -29. -28. -28. -26. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -13. -16. -22. -33. -51. -58. -62. -65. -67. -70. -72. -74. -75. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 27.9 83.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/12/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.34 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 408.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.51 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.06 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.80 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 9.1% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 3.1% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/12/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/12/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 50 39 38 36 30 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 43 42 40 34 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 50 48 42 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 43 37 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT