* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/11/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 64 59 54 42 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 66 64 59 54 35 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 67 65 60 54 35 34 30 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 13 13 18 19 29 40 41 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 11 12 9 6 12 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 302 311 281 288 277 264 286 293 282 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.3 25.0 23.4 23.1 26.1 26.9 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 123 116 104 93 91 114 122 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 114 108 101 91 82 81 97 103 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.4 -54.0 -54.6 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.5 -0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 4 3 5 2 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 58 58 54 50 35 30 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 21 18 16 12 10 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 37 35 36 33 7 -31 -51 -81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 23 12 2 -5 13 -24 -52 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 2 5 17 22 6 8 2 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 191 127 72 30 9 -35 129 209 304 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.8 26.6 27.4 28.2 28.9 30.0 30.9 31.3 31.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.8 83.6 83.4 83.1 82.8 81.7 80.1 78.4 77.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 8 3 0 0 0 6 17 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 13 CX,CY: 3/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. -18. -20. -22. -24. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -17. -18. -20. -20. -21. -22. -22. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -6. -11. -17. -24. -30. -32. -34. -35. -35. -33. -32. -31. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -6. -11. -23. -36. -50. -62. -66. -68. -69. -69. -67. -64. -62. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 25.8 83.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/11/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 387.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.53 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.06 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.4% 18.9% 14.5% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 1.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 6.8% 5.2% 4.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/11/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/11/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 66 64 59 54 35 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 62 57 52 33 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 56 51 32 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 50 31 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT