* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/11/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 61 57 53 45 31 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 61 61 57 53 45 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 62 62 60 56 47 35 29 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 16 14 12 17 23 35 40 47 47 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 8 12 13 10 11 14 13 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 302 305 309 286 289 269 280 286 269 259 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.6 27.1 26.8 26.2 24.0 22.1 22.4 22.3 22.0 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 131 124 120 114 96 85 85 84 81 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 115 109 104 99 84 75 74 73 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.9 -54.5 -54.8 -55.2 -55.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.5 1.0 0.6 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 5 6 3 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 57 55 52 42 30 26 25 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 22 20 18 14 9 8 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 51 39 38 29 25 -13 -33 -95 -108 -126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 -21 16 0 -11 5 -27 -49 -15 26 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 9 1 6 9 11 1 -5 0 8 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 202 244 180 133 89 46 -59 -64 -45 -45 -45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.5 25.3 26.1 26.8 27.4 28.5 29.6 30.3 30.8 31.1 31.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.2 84.1 83.9 83.8 83.6 83.2 82.5 82.1 82.0 82.0 82.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 7 6 6 5 3 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 51 26 11 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 28/ 7 CX,CY: 3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -20. -22. -24. -26. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -14. -20. -26. -27. -28. -30. -31. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -3. -4. -8. -16. -21. -29. -33. -34. -35. -35. -34. -33. -31. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -3. -7. -15. -29. -42. -57. -66. -73. -73. -75. -76. -75. -73. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 24.5 84.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/11/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.52 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.19 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 367.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.56 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.19 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 15.9% 12.0% 10.3% 8.9% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 5.9% 4.3% 3.6% 3.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/11/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/11/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 61 61 57 53 45 32 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 59 55 51 43 30 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 52 48 40 27 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 46 38 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT