* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/11/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 58 57 54 47 37 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 57 58 57 54 47 37 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 57 58 58 55 49 42 35 29 23 19 23 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 17 19 17 14 20 30 38 33 36 47 49 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 6 9 13 10 11 14 7 10 9 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 309 310 307 317 297 284 281 289 270 262 248 263 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.4 27.0 26.4 25.3 24.0 23.7 23.4 22.9 22.6 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 136 128 123 115 104 94 92 90 88 86 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 122 119 112 107 99 89 81 79 77 76 75 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.7 -54.4 -54.6 -54.9 -55.1 -55.4 -55.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 4 5 1 2 0 1 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 56 55 57 57 49 34 24 21 19 22 19 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 23 22 20 16 13 10 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 68 54 39 33 25 8 -21 -56 -122 -127 -145 -123 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -4 -16 8 -3 -17 -11 -64 -55 3 0 -23 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 7 11 0 3 10 1 -7 -13 5 -4 6 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 117 185 254 249 199 120 102 55 47 47 -1 -58 -104 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.2 24.9 25.7 26.4 27.5 28.4 29.0 29.3 29.6 30.0 30.5 31.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.6 84.6 84.5 84.4 84.3 84.0 83.8 83.6 83.8 84.1 84.4 84.6 84.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 2 2 2 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 84 72 44 19 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 8 CX,CY: 3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -2. -6. -10. -14. -19. -24. -28. -30. -31. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -13. -19. -23. -28. -34. -35. -35. -33. -32. -31. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. -1. -8. -18. -30. -39. -48. -56. -61. -63. -63. -62. -60. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 23.5 84.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/11/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.53 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.30 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 331.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.59 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.31 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 18.7% 13.9% 12.3% 11.1% 11.8% 9.1% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 3.3% 1.9% 1.3% 0.6% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.6% 2.6% 1.0% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 8.2% 5.6% 4.9% 3.9% 4.6% 3.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/11/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/11/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 58 57 54 47 37 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 55 54 51 44 34 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 50 47 40 30 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 42 35 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT