* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/10/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 53 54 53 48 42 31 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 52 53 54 53 48 42 31 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 52 54 55 55 51 44 37 32 28 24 22 20 25 26 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 8 16 18 15 17 18 27 22 28 35 51 41 47 70 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 7 6 9 16 13 12 6 7 3 9 2 6 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 338 319 304 304 328 301 287 282 280 260 234 253 255 243 237 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 27.6 27.0 26.7 26.5 25.9 25.3 24.6 23.3 23.2 23.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 140 140 140 129 121 118 116 110 105 99 91 91 90 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 120 121 122 121 111 103 100 98 94 89 85 79 79 78 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -53.3 -53.5 -54.2 -54.5 -54.8 -55.1 -55.6 -55.4 -55.3 -55.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 4 2 0 1 1 3 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 54 56 55 57 52 42 30 25 24 26 17 18 29 22 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 23 23 21 18 15 11 7 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 63 58 46 34 19 12 -20 -32 -91 -94 -139 -103 -64 -60 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 -2 5 -19 -3 -16 -6 -68 -57 20 37 13 11 33 13 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -1 5 5 -1 6 2 -7 -4 3 -4 2 -1 0 -111 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 99 122 150 195 245 286 244 233 234 153 116 58 -40 -157 -295 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.3 23.6 24.1 24.6 25.6 26.4 27.0 27.6 28.4 29.1 29.8 30.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.1 85.1 85.0 85.0 85.0 84.8 84.8 85.0 85.4 85.8 86.3 86.3 85.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 5 5 4 3 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 66 66 69 62 50 22 11 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -2. -5. -9. -15. -19. -24. -31. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -10. -18. -24. -30. -34. -34. -34. -33. -32. -31. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 3. -2. -8. -19. -25. -30. -34. -38. -42. -45. -49. -47. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 22.9 85.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/10/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.41 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.24 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 305.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.62 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.39 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 17.5% 13.1% 11.5% 10.4% 11.5% 11.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 3.8% 2.4% 1.9% 0.7% 2.0% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 7.3% 5.2% 4.5% 3.7% 4.5% 3.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/10/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/10/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 53 54 53 48 42 31 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 50 51 50 45 39 28 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 46 41 35 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 39 34 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT